All two-wheelers in India could be electric by 2027: Niti Aayog

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The penetration of electric two-wheelers in India is changing at a pace never seen before. Despite concerning incidents, buyers are flocking to buy electric two-wheelers. The Niti Aayog presented a report that predicts the adoption of electric vehicles in the country. The report was launched in partnership with TIFAC and is titled “Predicting the Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India”. Also Read – Haryana Government Approves State Electric Vehicle (EV) Policy 2022: Incentives, Subsidies and More

NITI Ayog and TIFAC makes a tool to make these predictions. They came up with eight scenarios that were developed to analyze the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country. Also Read – BIS Rolls Out New Performance Standards For Electric Vehicles To Reduce Fires

In the most optimistic scenario, the report predicts 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY 2026-27. In another scenario, which is technology-driven and where current incentives are removed by 2024, the report predicts 72% penetration by 2031. Also Read – Foxconn plans to manufacture electric vehicles in India: Report

Launching the report, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said, “This report provides an indispensable tool for industry, researchers, academics and policy makers to analyze and respond to various scenarios. It can also be easily replicated in other segments, such as four-wheelers, without any issues. »

Here are the eight scenarios considered by Niti Aayog and TIFAC:

  1. Disputed broadcast
  2. Performance Driven
  3. Low battery cost
  4. Technology driven
  5. Motivated by incitement
  6. Battery cost disputed
  7. Same performance
  8. Optimistic

Future scenarios have been constructed based on three major factors influencing the market penetration of electric two-wheelers: (i) demand incentives (ii) battery cost (iii) vehicle performance in terms of autonomy and power.

Four broad levels of constraint have also been identified for the eight scenarios, in terms of manufacturing capacity of installed vehicles and available charging infrastructure: (i) total constraint (where vehicle production and charging infrastructure are constraints) (ii) production constraint (where only vehicles production is a constraint) (iii) charging constraint (where only charging infrastructure is a constraint) (iv) no constraint.

In the “Technology Driven” scenario, if an R&D program manages to increase the range and power of electric two-wheelers by 5% per year between fiscal years 2023-24 and 2025-26, and by 10% over the fiscal year 2026-2027, then the penetration of electric two-wheelers could reach around 72% in fiscal year 2031–32, even without expanding demand incentives.

Sales of electric two-wheelers could exceed 220,000 lakh units in the financial year 2028-29 under the “optimistic”, “same performance” and “disputed battery cost” scenarios, according to forecasts. It can be as high as 180 lakh units under the “tech-driven” scenario. Under the “Incentive Drive” scenario, the sale is only expected to reach 55 lakh units in FY 2031.

The report will also help assess the requirements to build an ecosystem of electric two-wheelers. It provides an overview of the required infrastructure, manufacturing capacity, policies and technology development priorities in the region.




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