Omicron peak will hit India by next month, warns US-based expert


Washington: A US-based health expert has said that India will peak in the number of COVID-19 cases with the expectation of reporting five lakh cases per day by next month.

According to Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington, The severity of the Omicron version of the COVID-19 pandemic in India will be less than that of the Delta version.

“You are entering the Omicron wave, there are many countries around the world, and we expect that there will be more cases per day for the delta wave than you did in April last year, but the Omicron is much less severe,” Christopher Murray As quoted by ANI.

“So, while you will have many cases and probably set records for cases. This should be less than the impact on disease severity. We currently have models that we will release later, we expect to have about half a million The cases will peak, which should come during the next month,” he said.

As many experts in India say that the country has hybrid immunity that would make Omicron less effective, Dr Murray said: “What we know from a place like South Africa, where there is already a tremendous amount of growth in both the delta as well as The infection was beta. The vaccination dose provides considerable protection against hospitalization and death for severe disease, which is why we think there will be many cases of omicrons in India, but much less than you would in the delta wave There will be hospitalization and death.”

Speaking about the severity due to the number and diversity of hospitalizations, he said: “We expect 85.2 percent of infections to have no symptoms. They will be asymptomatic, but in cases, we still have a considerable number of them.” In terms of hospitalizations and deaths, the cases will be greatly reduced. So we expect you to have about a quarter for the peak delta wave of hospital admissions in India, and the deaths by you Must be less than observed. Delta.”

According to some experts, further propagation of omicrons can lead to other mutations.

“The thing about mutations is that they’re random. So, the more transmission there is, the more likely a mutation is to occur. But in the setting of this rapid transmission of omicrons, it’s going to be very difficult in the next A month or two for a new version to meet Omicron because it’s so permeable,” Dr. Murray said.

Dr Christopher Murray talks about the new variant with multiple mutations in France.

“Mutations happen all the time, and you can identify forms with multiple mutations, but what we look for is, you know, within 30 to 45 days after a new mutation appears. , Has it spread like Omicron, as of now, that mutation has been around in France for a long time. And it hasn’t spread so we don’t know about that mutation at present.”

“Omicron is 90 to 95 percent, less severe, but there is still a class of individuals, especially older individuals who will become ill. Therefore, there will be an increase. This is a very small increase in hospitalizations,” he said. .

First Published:January 8, 2022, 7:26 am

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